個別指導サービスのEdTechスタートアップNerdyがSPACを介して上場へ
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ギグエコノミーで駆動している消費者EdTechプラットフォームがニューヨーク証券取引所に向かう。
人気の個別指導事業Varsity Tutorsを所有するEdTechスタートアップのNerdy（ナーディ）は特別買収目的会社（SPAC）を通じて上場する予定だ。
Nerdyは、2015年に公開したSPAC、TPG Pace Tech Opportunities（NYSE：PACE）と合併する。取引は2021年第2四半期にクローズする見込みだ。
この取引でNerdyのバリュエーションは17億ドル（約1780億円）となる。合併を通じてNerdyは現金で7億5000万ドル（約785億円）を調達する計画だ。ここにはFranklin Templeton、Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan、Koch Industries、Learn CapitalからのPIPE（私募増資）での1億5000万ドル（約157億円）が含まれる。
Nerdyの基幹ビジネスであるVarsity Tutorsは指導者と学生を大規模、小規模、1：1でマッチングする両面性を持つマーケットプレイスだ。学習プラットフォームは3000以上のテーマをカバーしている。他のEdTech企業と同様、Varsity Tutorsはより良いマッチングになるよう人工知能とデータ分析を使っている。加えて、2020年8月にVarsity Tutorsは従来の学校に代わるものとしてホームスクーリングのサービスを立ち上げた。公立学校やチャータースクールで以前働いていた120人のフルタイム教育者を競争力のある給料で引き抜いた。
TechCrunchはNerdyのSPAC投資家プレゼンをレビューした。
Nerdyは、新型コロナウイルスパンデミックによるリモート学習の需要によって急成長してチャンスをつかんだ消費者EdTech企業の1つだ。2020年下期に同社は年換算売上高は1億2000万ドル（約125億円）を超えた。2020年第4四半期に同社のオンライン売上高は前年同期から87％成長し、オンライン有料アクティブ学習者の数は前年同期比59％増、有料オンラインセッションの数は同169％増だった、としている。
好ましいものになりがちな年換算業績ではなく2020年第3四半期から第4四半期にかけての実際の業績を掘り下げてみると、Nerdyは2020年の予想収益は1億600万ドル（約110億円）で、これは2019年の収益から16%増だ。
その成長レートは2019年の26％成長を下回り、2021年に予想している31％成長のおおよそ半分だ。しかしNerdyの2022年の予想はさらに強気だ。売上高は2021年予想1億3800万ドル（約144億円）から43％増の1億9800万ドル（約207億円）を見込んでいる。
同社がその目標を達成できるかどうかは今後明らかになる。SPAC主導のデビューにより同社は従来のIPO手法を踏んだ企業よりも関心を集めることになる。
Nerdyの成長は損失を食い止めてはいない。同社はまだ赤字だ。2020年に予想される純損失は2300万ドル（約24億円）で、2019年の損失よりも大きいが、2018年の赤字よりは少ない。2020年の成長をベースに考えると、同社の2021年の純損失は800万ドル（約8億4000万円）に抑えられ、2023年までに黒字化を達成する。
Nerdyは売上高が増える中で、2020年になぜ損失を減らせなかったのだろうか。セールスやマーケティング費用とは別に、同社のコストが控えめな損益につながった。特定領域の費用は2019年の3800万ドル（約40億円）から2020年の4400万ドル（約46億円）予想に増えた。
それとは対照的に、Nerdyの純損失は2020年にほぼ変動がなく、純差益は2019年のマイナス24％から2020年の予想マイナス22％に改善した。黒字を達成する方法もあるが、純利益を計上するのはわずか数年先のことだと同社が考えていることを財務は示している。
黒字化を達成するために、同社は2023年の売上高2億6700万ドル（約279億円）が必要だと予想している。これは2022年から35％成長で、粗利益率は2020年に達成した67％よりも5ポイント高い。
同社の事業をよく見ると、SPACブームで見られる共通の疑問が湧く。逆さ合併は、そうでもしなければ上場が果たせなかった短期の成長見通しが芳しくない企業を上場させるために使われているのだろうか。これまでのところSkillsoft、Meten International、そして今Nerdyと、数多くのEdTechスタートアップがSPACの手法を取っている。
EdTechにとって2020年は力強い年となった。この分野のスタートアップの年間経常収支1億ドル（約105億円）を超えるにつれ、今後より多くのエグジットが予想される、とこの部門の投資家は話す。GSVのマネジングパートナーのDeborah Quazzo（デボラ・クアゾ）氏は2020年12月、「キャピタルマーケットの清算がEdTechで起こっています」とTechCrunchに語っている。「未公開企業と公開企業の間を流動的に動けることが厚みのある資本市場をともなうEdTech部門の特徴で、これはエグジットの選択肢がかなり限られていたかつてのEdTechと大きく異なる点です」。
関連記事：学校を辞めていく教師たちの次の行き先はスタートアップなのか
画像クレジット：creatarka / Getty Images
【原文】
A gig economy-powered consumer edtech platform is heading to the New York Stock Exchange.
Edtech startup Nerdy, which owns the popular tutoring business Varsity Tutors, is seeking to become a public company through a special purpose acquisition vehicle, otherwise known as a SPAC.
Nerdy will merge with TPG Pace Tech Opportunities (NYSE: PACE), a publicly traded SPAC since 2015. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of this year.
The deal will value Nerdy at $1.7 billion. Through the transaction, the business plans to raise up to $750 million in cash, including $150 million in PIPE financing aggregated by Franklin Templeton, Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan, Koch Industries and Learn Capital.
Nerdy’s flagship business, Varsity Tutors, is a two-sided marketplace that matches tutors to students in large, small or 1:1 group environments. The learning platform covers more than 3,000 subjects. Like other edtech companies, Varsity Tutors uses artificial intelligence and data analytics to better match experts to learners. Additionally, in August, Varsity Tutors launched a homeschooling offering meant to replace traditional school. It onboarded 120 full-time educators, who came from public schools and charter schools, with competitive salaries.
Financial performance
TechCrunch reviewed the Nerdy-SPAC investor presentation, which can be read here.
Nerdy is among consumer edtech businesses that saw rapid growth and opportunity due to the demands of remote learning brought about by the coronavirus pandemic. In the second half of 2020, Nerdy’s annualized revenue surpassed $120 million. In the last quarter of 2020, the company saw its online revenue grow 87%, online paid active learners grow 59% and paid online sessions grow 169%, compared to the same time period last year, the business reports.
Drilling into its realized results instead of its more-favorable annualized performance from its third and fourth quarters of 2020, Nerdy saw estimated revenues of $106 million in the year, up just 16% from its 2019 result.
That growth rate is slower than what it managed in 2019, some 26% growth, and is around half of what it anticipates for 2021, namely 31% growth. But Nerdy has even stronger projections for 2022, a year in which it expects to drive revenues of $198 million, up 43% from its 2021 expectation of $138 million.
Whether the company can hit those goals remains to be seen; SPAC-led debuts allow for the company being taken public in the transaction to forecast more than companies that follow traditional IPO paths are allowed.
The company’s growth also failed to stem its losses. Nerdy is not yet profitable. Its 2020 estimates list an anticipated net loss of $23 million, which is more than it lost in 2019 but less than its 2018 deficit. Based on last year’s growth, Nerdy estimates that its net loss will slim to $8 million in 2021, and will achieve profitability by 2023.
How did Nerdy fail to reduce its losses last year as its revenues expanded? The company’s costs showed modest gains and losses, apart from its sales and marketing line item. That particular realm of expense rose from $38 million in 2019 to an estimated $44 million in 2020.
In contrast, while Nerdy’s net losses were largely static in 2020, its estimated net margin did improve from -24% in 2019 to an estimated -22% in 2020. It has a ways to go to reach the black, though its financials do indicate that the company thinks that net income is only a few years away.
To reach profitability, Nerdy anticipates it will require 2023 revenues of $267 million, growth from 2022 of 35% and gross margins five points stronger than its 67% result it estimated it reached last year.
A closer look at Nerdy’s business brings up a common question amid the SPAC boom: Is the reverse-merger being used to bring companies with lackluster near-term growth stories to the public market that otherwise couldn’t have? So far, a number of edtech startups have taken the SPAC route, including Skillsoft, Meten International and now Nerdy.
After edtech had a strong 2020, sector investors say to expect more exits as startups cross the $100 million ARR mark. Deborah Quazzo, managing partner of GSV, told TechCrunch in December that “what’s happening in edtech is that capital markets are liquidating.” The ability to move fluidly between privately held and publicly held companies is a characteristic of tech sectors with deep capital markets, which is different from edtech’s “old days, where the options to exit were very narrow.”
（文：Natasha Mascarenhas、Alex Wilhelm、翻訳：Nariko Mizoguchi）
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