SPACの作るグラフは誇大広告の限界を探るものになっている

今回は「SPACの作るグラフは誇大広告の限界を探るものになっている」についてご紹介します。

関連ワード （SPAC等） についても参考にしながら、ぜひ本記事について議論していってくださいね。

本記事は、TechCrunch様で掲載されている内容を参考にしておりますので、より詳しく内容を知りたい方は、ページ下の元記事リンクより参照ください。

この1年、自分でも認めたくないほどSPAC（特別買収目的会社）投資のプレゼン資料を見てきた私は、彼らの異常な強気に強い苛立ちを感じている。保守的だと言われるかもしれないが、上場企業たるもの、でたらめばかりであってはならないし、上場しようとする会社もおそらく同様の目標を目指すべきだ。

その点、従来型IPOのS-1申請資料はすばらしい。数字に関して実に誠実だ。資料に来年の予測は入っていないし、今後5年間のことなどもちろん書かれていない。たしかに会社は自分たちのビジネスモデルや方法を売り込むだろうが、S-1申請は誠実さという意味でかなりよくできている、多くの場合。

SPAC投資家の資料は正反対だ。どういう意味かは下のグラフを見て欲しい。

過去の売上？そんなの必要？。これを見てください、今後もしかしたら、理論上、起きるかもしれない成長率です。CAGR（年複利成長率）201%！といったところだろうか。

こちらも興味深い。

はい、そうですか。

Local Bounti（ローカル・バウンティ）のSPAC投資家プレゼン資料の超高精細画像がここにある。私の見つけた最も鮮明なバージョンだ。グラフをお楽しみあれ。

私はグラフのタイトルを「Alexの将来のブログ投稿数」に変えて、次の評価面接で使おうと思う。

これもすごい、今度はPear Therapeutics（ペア・セラピューティクス）の作品だ。

そしてもう1つ、これは最近のEmbark（エンバーク）の資料にあったもので、TechCrunchも取り上げている。

関連記事：自動運転トラックのEmbarkがSPAC合併で上場へ、評価額は約5770億円

過去の売上実績はどうなっているんだ？2021年や2022年、2023年の予測は？そんなの知らん！

SPACの実績予測の正確性について我々が学んだことを踏まえると、一連の数値を受け入れるためにはゴジラサイズのSalt Bae（ソルト・ベイ / 塩振りおじさん）が必要だと私は思う。

画像クレジット：Paitoonpati / Getty Images

【原文】

Having read more SPAC investor decks in the last twelve months than I’d like to admit to, I thought I was over being irked by their bullishness. Call me conservative, but public companies shouldn’t be full of shit, and companies going public should probably aim for a similar target.

That’s why S-1 filings for traditional IPOs are great. When it comes to numbers, they are honest. The filings don’t include forecasts for the next year, let alone the next half decade. Sure, companies will make a pitch for their model and methods, but S-1 filings are pretty good from an honesty perspective. Mostly.

SPAC investor decks are the opposite. I mean, look at this chart:

Historical revenue? Who needs it! Look at the growth that could maybe, possibly, theoretically happen! 201% CAGR!

Here’s another favorite:

Sure, Bob.

Here’s a super-grainy image from the Local Bounti SPAC investor deck. It’s the least-blurry version I could find. Enjoy the charts!

I’m going to change the numbers on these, label them “Alex’s future blogging output” and turn them in before my next performance review.

Here’s another great one, this time from Pear Therapeutics:

And one more, this time from the recent Embark deal that TechCrunch covered here:

What about historical revenues? Or expectations from 2021, 2022 or 2023? Who knows!

Given what we’ve learned about the accuracy of SPAC performance predictions, I think we need a Godzilla-sized Salt Bae to make all of this palatable.

（文：Alex Wilhelm、翻訳：Nob Takahashi / facebook ）

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